Insiders Advisor
  • Stocks
  • World News
  • Business
  • Politics
  • Stocks
  • World News
  • Business
  • Politics

Insiders Advisor

Stocks

One Potentially Big Problem Is Lurking For The Bulls This Summer

by May 19, 2024
May 19, 2024
One Potentially Big Problem Is Lurking For The Bulls This Summer

Last week’s rally to record highs was due, at least in part, to a rather tame CPI report released on Wednesday. Inflation has been at the heart of nearly every rally and every decline over the past few years. Clearly, we saw inflation soaring throughout 2021 and 2022, but since then, the annual core CPI has been consistently dropping, despite a Fed that says they haven’t seen enough of a drop toward their 2% target level to warrant a fed funds rate decrease. Here’s the Core CPI chart that illustrates the rise and fall of inflation since the 2020 pandemic began:

Call me crazy, but I see an annual Core CPI rate that is tumbling. History tells us that when inflation peaks and rolls over, it’s a very bullish signal for U.S. equities. 2023 and 2024 has been no different. However, there is one inflation problem that no one is really talking about.

Inflation Likely To Climb This Summer

There’s like to be a few negative/bearish analyst comments this summer. The reason? In 2023, the June (+0.19%), July (+0.23%), and August (+0.23%) represented the 3 lowest monthly core CPI readings. That means that these monthly readings in the same 3 months as 2023 will need to come in extremely low or there’ll be brief 3-month spike in the annual core rate of inflation at the consumer level. We know the stock market doesn’t like uncertainty of any kind and a 3-month move higher in inflation could trigger that uncertainty.

Keep in mind that the June, July, and August readings are generally reported within the first 10 days to 2 weeks of the following month. So if we see weakness from these readings, it’ll likely be from mid-July through mid-September.

Presidential Election Year Cycle

Finally, let’s review the typical price action during a Presidential election year:

During this cycle, we tend to see very strong runs to the upside in late-May, June, and into early July. Given that our major indices just broke to new all-time record highs after a period of consolidation, this potential bullish scenario looks like a solid one to me.

But when those June, July, and August CPI readings come out, just think back to this article. This could be a real threat to our major indices over the late summer months.

I spoke, in much more detail, about this possible inflation scenario unfolding later this year during my “EB Weekly Market Recap” video at YouTube.com. Be sure to check it out and hit the “Like” button. If you haven’t already done so, be sure to “Subscribe” to our YouTube channel as well, so that you don’t miss future EB.com videos!

Spring Special Has Begun!

Our absolute best membership deal of the year started last week. If you’d like to check out our service and save A LOT of money simultaneously, please CLICK HERE for more information on the deal.

Happy trading!

Tom

previous post
In Israel visit, Stefanik to tout Trump’s record on Jewish state, reject Biden policies: ‘No excuse’
next post
The lunch rush is dead as Americans live for the weekend

Related Posts

Equity Markets Rebound As Discretionary Out-Performs

September 16, 2024

The SCTR Report: Learn How to Scan and...

October 30, 2024

MEM TV: 3 Great WAYS to Play AMD...

March 2, 2024

SCTR Report: Unlocking TSLA’s Potential—What Every Investor Needs...

October 24, 2024

The Best Five Sectors (1)

January 3, 2025

Hedging the S&P All-Time Highs With Options

May 22, 2024

The Halftime Show: Don’t Box the Invisible Man...

February 22, 2024

Small-caps Break Out and Lead – Now What?

July 19, 2024

Powerful Entry Strategy Using One Moving Average

May 15, 2024

These S&P 500 Stocks Are Poised To Outperform!

November 1, 2024

    Fill Out & Get More Relevant News


    Stay ahead of the market and unlock exclusive trading insights & timely news. We value your privacy - your information is secure, and you can unsubscribe anytime. Gain an edge with hand-picked trading opportunities, stay informed with market-moving updates, and learn from expert tips & strategies.

    Latest News

    • State Department says 59,000 tons of food assistance are in motion after reports of incinerated aid

      July 18, 2025
    • Pentagon to probe Microsoft’s use of Chinese engineers on sensitive defense systems, Hegseth says

      July 18, 2025
    • GOP senator reveals the ‘dirty’ secret to Trump’s Make America Healthy Again movement

      July 18, 2025
    • Russia says NATO threatens WWIII in latest deterrence plan that could take down Kaliningrad ‘faster than ever’

      July 18, 2025
    • Pro-Israel congressman accuses Tel Aviv of ‘mocking’ Trump with ‘suicidal’ strikes in Syria

      July 18, 2025
    • House Republicans face mounting resistance as third ex-Biden WH aide pleads Fifth Amendment

      July 18, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (1,310)
    • Politics (6,459)
    • Stocks (904)
    • World News (460)
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: insidersadvisor.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 insidersadvisor.com | All Rights Reserved